This report provides an explanatory overview of demographic and real estate data for metropolitan statistical areas. The code wrangles and analyzes data collected from government agencies to create metrics to explore the relationships between criteria and compare across MSAs. Specifically, this data analysis includes population growth, household income, employment rates, house prices, and property taxes. Preliminary analysis of population change and size narrowed down potential areas which experienced population growth rate greater than 0.5% and have populations greater than 300,000 people. In addition, 28 MSAs were removed from analysis, as requested by the client, due to hyper-competitive real estate markets. In brief, there are 44 metropolitan statistical areas with potential for ZNE Capital aqcuire real estate.

Preliminary analysis

Population Growth

All states were considered with the exception of CA, HI, and AK. Initial analysis of Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) relied on Census data of annual population estimates, in which the population had to be greater than 300,000 individuals for the purpose of attracting investors. Population change from 2020 to 2021 was calculated by \[\frac{2021 estimate- 2020 estimate}{2021 estimate} * 100\] MSAs with a population growth > 0.5%, were selected to gather further data on. The 0.5% growth was determined.

Dataset: Annual Resident Population Estimates and Estimated Components of Resident Population Change for Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas and Their Geographic Components: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021 (CBSA-EST2021-ALLDATA)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

Figure 1. Population growth in Metropolitan Statistical Areas (n=44) in 2020. Highlighted areas have a population > 300,000 individuals and a population growth rate greater than 0.5%. The colors of the MSAs represent incremental growth rates, in which low(green) is 0.5-1% increase, medium(blue) is 1-2% increase, and high(pink) is 2-3.5% increase. Data: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division.

Household Income

Household Median Income data was also obtained from Census data at the MSA level and amended to existing MSAs with a positive population increase. Median is a better indicator of the population than the mean income values due to the positive skew from the highest incomes.

Dataset: Median Household Income (USD) INCOME IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS (IN 2020 INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Figure 2. Median Household income of Metropolitan Statistical Areas in 2021. The green points indicate the median income value for each MSA with the margin of error presented by the bars on either side of each point. Data: U.S. Census Bureau.

Employment Rates

MSA monthly unemployment rates (seasonally-adjusted) were provided by The Bureau of Labor statistics in the civil labor force data at the MSA level. The average annual unemployment rates were calculated using the monthly rates from 2012 to 2020. Employment rates were calculated by dividing the number of employment / civilian labor force. The employment data for the month of January in years 2018-2021 was selected to calculate the change in employment rates over time. Year-over-Year employment growth was calculated by dividing the employment rate of the year by the previous year and subtracting one; for example, 2018 employment YoY growth = (2019 employment rate / 2018 employment rate) - 1.

Annual Average Employment Rates & Year-over-Year change civil labor force data from The Bureau of Labor Statistics

Monthly unemployment rates (seasonally-adjusted) from The Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/web/metro.supp.toc.htm https://www.bls.gov/web/metro/metro_oty_change.htm - significant change

House Prices

Median housing prices by MSA were obtained from the Association of Realtors for years 2019, 2020, and 2021. The percent difference in 2021 Q1 and 2022 Q1 was used to show the change in price in 2021. Next quarterly release will be 11/10

Source: The National Association of Realtors

The following MSAs were not included in the housing dataset:

  • Augusta-Richmond County
  • Clarksville, TN-KY
  • Greeley, CO
  • Killeen, TX
  • Lubbock, TX
  • McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
  • Salisbury, MD
  • Savannah, GA

Property Taxes

It was difficult to find property tax information by city that was consistent across cities. Median real estate taxes in dollars are provided by the U.S. Census and data is collected at the MSA level. A metric of property tax and median home prices can be used to normalized.

Dataset: B25103 MORTGAGE STATUS BY MEDIAN REAL ESTATE TAXES PAID (USD) in 2019

Source:U.S. Census Bureau

Multiple Regression

MSA data table

City Data Table

MSAs were split up by cities to collect utility, rent, and landlord data.